01 · Resources · Updated 13 July 2026
Critical Mineral Control
Resources, mine output and refined supply are separate forms of power. The chapter follows each material through those stages and records where control becomes narrower.
Open the interactive map- Coverage
- 125 mapped strategic records; chapter evidence has wider dataset coverage
- Evidence period
- Latest source releases available through July 2026; underlying observation years vary
The three measurements answer different questions
Reserves describe material that can be economically extracted under stated assumptions. Mine output records current extraction. Refined production records the stage at which ore or concentrate becomes a usable metal, chemical or battery-grade product. A country can rank highly in one measure and remain dependent in the next. U.S. Geological Survey International Energy Agency
The interface therefore does not merge reserves, production and refining into one score. Each stage keeps its own year, unit and source. Where the reporting years differ, the date remains visible beside the number. U.S. Geological Survey
Concentration has increased at the conversion stage
The IEA found that the average share of the three largest refining countries for key energy minerals rose from about 82% in 2020 to 86% in 2024. The increase was strongest where new capacity accumulated rapidly in one country, particularly nickel refining in Indonesia and cobalt-related processing. International Energy Agency
The same review found China to be the leading refiner for 19 of 20 strategic minerals, with an average market share of roughly 70%. This is not a statement about every mine or deposit. It concerns the conversion capacity that manufacturers actually require. U.S. Geological Survey
Mine growth can deepen rather than reduce dependency
Nickel shows the problem clearly. USGS estimated world mine production at 3.9 million tonnes in 2025, of which Indonesia supplied 2.6 million tonnes. Rapid mine growth was accompanied by processing growth in the same country, increasing the weight of a single national system across several stages. U.S. Geological Survey
Lithium moved differently. World production excluding undisclosed United States output rose by 31% to about 290,000 tonnes in 2025. Australia remained the largest listed producer at 92,000 tonnes, while China, Chile and Argentina also expanded. That broader mine base does not by itself describe chemical conversion or cathode-material capacity. U.S. Geological Survey
Export controls turn structural concentration into an operating risk
China tightened controls on several rare-earth products in April 2025 and announced a wider set in October before suspending the October measures for one year. The April controls remained in force. The consequence for manufacturers depends on the controlled product, available inventories, licensing and the location of separation, metal and magnet production. U.S. Geological Survey
The DRC also replaced a temporary cobalt export ban with quotas covering late 2025 and annual volumes for 2026 and 2027. A supply map that ignores policy status can therefore become obsolete even when the mine locations have not changed. U.S. Geological Survey
What this chapter should be used for
Use the map to locate mismatches: countries with deposits but little conversion capacity, refiners that rely on imported feedstock, and consuming regions with few alternative suppliers. The analysis page then tests whether planned projects alter those mismatches or merely add capacity to the existing centres. International Energy Agency
The chapter does not publish a single criticality score. It reports concentration, stage dependence, project status and substitution separately so that users can see why a material is exposed. International Energy Agency U.S. Geological Survey
Material-specific patterns must remain distinct
Cobalt, graphite, rare earths, lithium and nickel do not share one concentration pattern. USGS estimated that the DRC supplied 230,000 tonnes of a 310,000-tonne cobalt mine market in 2025, while China produced about 1.4 million tonnes of a 1.8-million-tonne natural-graphite market and 270,000 tonnes of a 390,000-tonne rare-earth-oxide mine market. These are mine-output measures; the location of chemical purification, separation, metalmaking and component manufacture can be narrower still. U.S. Geological Survey International Energy Agency
Lithium requires a different reading. Australia, China, Chile and Argentina all appeared among the leading 2025 producers, but their products, extraction routes and downstream conversion positions differ. The chapter therefore opens a separate chain for each material rather than presenting one critical-minerals ranking. U.S. Geological Survey
Physical location and corporate control are separate layers
An asset can be located in one jurisdiction, controlled by a company domiciled in another and tied by offtake to a customer in a third. The atlas stores mine location, immediate owner, ultimate parent, principal financiers and disclosed offtake separately. This avoids treating national geography as a complete account of control. International Energy Agency
Ownership data are dated because stakes, joint ventures and state participation change. Where a beneficial owner cannot be verified, the dossier states the last confirmed legal owner and leaves the control field unresolved rather than inferring it from a brand name. U.S. Geological Survey
The forward view is a project ledger, not a supply promise
Investment growth in critical-mineral mining slowed to about 5% in 2024 after 14% in 2023, while exploration activity levelled off. This weakens the assumption that announced diversification will arrive automatically. The project ledger therefore distinguishes financed construction from early announcements and records slippage against the original schedule. International Energy Agency
For every material, the forward page compares mine feed, conversion capacity, product qualification and likely customers. A project changes dependency only when all four parts can operate together. The atlas will mark this explicitly instead of adding every announced tonne to a future-supply total. International Energy Agency
Evidence table
Current comparison
| Material | 2025 evidence | Structural reading |
|---|---|---|
| Nickel | 3.9 Mt world mine output; Indonesia 2.6 Mt | Mine and processing expansion are concentrated in the same national system. |
| Cobalt | DRC 73% of mine output; Indonesia 14% | Mining is concentrated; refining is concentrated elsewhere, mainly in China. |
| Natural graphite | China estimated at 82% of world supply | Battery-anode exposure extends beyond mine output to purification and shaping. |
| Rare earths | 390 kt world mine output; China 270 kt | Mine concentration is high and separation, metal and magnet capacity are narrower. |
| Lithium | 290 kt world output excluding undisclosed U.S. production, up 31% | Mine supply expanded quickly, but chemical conversion remains the stronger control point. |
Source register
Documents and datasets
2025 world mine production, reserves and commodity context for more than 90 minerals and materials.
2025 estimates · U.S. government work; generally public domain.Mining and refining concentration, project pipelines and supply-chain context.
Historical through 2024; outlook to 2040 · Report licensed CC BY 4.0; underlying dataset terms vary.